At the time of writing it remains to be seen what, if anything, the media at large makes of it. There’s a new poll, on matters of Independence, Referendum, and media coverage, and it’s proving very interesting. Like all polls it was carried out professionally, intent on confirming a broad range of views. But this one is just a bit different.
Firstly let’s just get firmly in our minds the political make up of those questioned. There’s a 47/53 gender split, in favour of the females; all age ranges are covered, proportionately; as are social groupings; and voting intentions broadly mirror Holyrood 2011 at, and remember this – SNP 37%/Labour 24%/Tory 11%/Lib Dem 5% etc. That’s pretty vital as we look at the outcomes.
I can pick out only a few highlights. The area that most wished devolved to Scotland was Welfare, sought by 60%. But the highest scorer of what may be devolved in the event of a No vote was – nothing, with 48% taking that view. Vote No, Get Nothing.
By overwhelming majority, from the voting, age and demographic mix, most people would not vote to give up control of taxation, welfare, defence etc to join the union today. They would choose to remain independent, the union having nothing to offer.
Trust is important, as we approach the 400 day out point. And all four of the leading lights in the No Scotland campaign polled below their four counterparts in the Yes Scotland campaign. The difference in the ranking of Alex Salmond to Blair McDougall is nothing short of staggering. And remember that it was voters of all parties that told you that.
The media does not escape either. Fortunately 49% are savvy enough not to be influenced by what is said. But 27% recognise there is an anti-independence bias; 29% seeing disproportionate coverage to the scare-mongering of the naysayers.
And, as we know from other polls, 30% don’t yet know how they will vote. That is the battle to be won and lost.
But wait for this one. The biggest threat to Scotland in our lifetime comes not from attack by Iran, or North Korea, 5% and 7 % respectively, not by terrorism at 33%, but from a tory government at Westminster at an astonishing 52% – astonishing only in that quite so many actually recognise that threat. And those threats are ‘protected’ by having WMDs on the Clyde – well actually nearly 60% don’t believe that one.
Now there’s so much more that can be taken from the results, and I’ve highlighted just a few. The Panelbase stats have been released to the wider media, and all comments by the body commissioning the poll have been approved by Panelbase.
It’s a poll that was paid for by the voting public, in response to a little bit of crowd funding, commissioned by our old friends at Wings Over Scotland. Sadly I missed the campaign, being out of the country, and didn’t get my groat in the bucket. But I’m delighted that it was a success, and heartened by confirmation of what many of us suspected. And the press reaction is…..
You can see Rev Stu’s initial interpretations, and importantly the comments of his readers, now numbering well over 400,000, here:
The difference with this poll is in the questions that were asked; and the answers provided are, shall we say, somewhat illuminating.